Traffic growth shows signs of slowing momentum in Q1, as ACI EUROPE revises its forecasting
Passenger traffic across Europe’s airports continued to grow in the first quarter of 2025, but at a noticeably slower pace, signalling a shift from the post-pandemic surge to more normalized growth patterns.
According to the latest data from ACI EUROPE, passenger volumes increased by +4.3% in Q1 2025 compared to the same period last year, a significant deceleration from the +10.2% growth recorded in Q1 2024. Compared to pre-pandemic levels (Q1 2019), traffic stood at +3.2% .
This growth was entirely driven by international traffic, which rose by +5.7%, while domestic traffic remained flat. Notably, international passenger volumes were up +8.9% compared to Q1 2019, whereas domestic traffic remained 12.8% below pre-pandemic levels.
Monthly growth rates also showed a downward trend: +6.9% in January, +3.4% in February, and +3% in March. The March figure was partly influenced by the Easter holiday falling in April this year.
Olivier Jankovec, Director General of ACI EUROPE, commented, “Our Q1 data shows that the post-pandemic travel boom is fading as we are moving towards ‘normalised’ growth rates in passenger volumes, with demand generally remaining resilient so far.” He also noted that factors such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain issues, and airlines focusing on yields over capacity expansion could exert downward pressure on demand in the coming months.
In light of these developments, ACI EUROPE has updated its five-year traffic forecast. While passenger volumes are expected to stand at +3.9% over 2019 levels in 2025 and +7.9% in 2026, these figures remain well below original pre-pandemic projections. The revised outlook reflects increased macro-economic uncertainty, continued inflationary pressures, capacity constraints, and growing market maturity. Additionally, the impact of EU/UK climate policy is anticipated to remain marginal until 2028 but is set to become more significant thereafter .
As Europe’s airports navigate this transition from rapid recovery to steadier growth, they face the dual challenges of adapting to a more complex operating environment and managing financial strains from long-term investments based on higher expected volumes.
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