Don’t it always seem to go, that you don’t know what you’ve got, till it’s gone?
ACI EUROPE’s Head of Economics and Competition, Michael Stanton-Geddes, takes a sneak peek into the upcoming European Airport Industry Connectivity Report 2021
For the second year in a row, our report should more accurately be travelling under the more dubious moniker of the Disconnectivity Report, for obvious reasons. ACI EUROPE’s annual European Airport Industry Connectivity Report presents the facts of an air transport network that has been washed away by the COVID-19 pandemic, like a sandcastle at the edge of the sea overcome by a rogue wave, leaving behind just a lump of the form that was there before.
The numbers are so large that it is hard to make meaning of them. After a year of hearing that traffic is down by 70% and that connectivity remains -72% below the levels of 2019, as this year’s report shows, it can be difficult to grasp the implications. We have become numb to the statistics. But it is important to pay attention to the thought-provoking details and what they mean for our society and economy. Three examples below.
Firstly, Europe’s small commercial airports, those serving fewer than 5 million passenger per annum, have seen their direct connectivity recover more quickly. Could it be that airlines are focused on restoring destination and routes first, and increasing the number of frequencies on an airport-pairing may take more time. How will this impact companies in regions where there are fewer flight choices to reach other economic centres?
Secondly, hubs in Europe suffered greatly. In contrast to direct connectivity, which increased by 40 percentage points between April and September 2021, hub connectivity only increased 12 percentage points. This is largely a result of the restrictions on intercontinental travel, and also likely travellers’ fears of being stuck in quarantine or unable to return home. But will hub connectivity be able to increase as rapidly as direct connectivity, or will airlines’ networks adjust to favour more point-to-point destinations with smaller aircraft, including more narrowbody long-haul operations?
Thirdly, this year’s report shows a glimpse of the future, with 5 of the top 15 airports for direct connectivity coming from Turkey and Russia, up from only 2 in 2019. Naturally some of the airports which lost ground will regain their top spots. But in the longer run, according to ACI’s World Airport Traffic Forecast, Turkey and Russia are the only countries in the Europe region that appear in the list of fastest growing large countries for the horizon to 2040, so we have a glimpse of what the leading airports for connectivity will be. How will this shift of growth align with aviation policy priorities?
As the rogue wave of COVID-19 flows back out, and sea barriers of vaccines ensure it does not return, we should think about how to enable the restoration of European airport connectivity. Yes, it is fragile, and any number of risks can damage it. Yes, we must put connecting sustainably front and centre in our planning. But at the same time, air connectivity is a backbone to businesses seeking to trade, to serve, to employ, and to innovate – with all the attendant benefits for us as individuals and societies.
The European Airport Industry Connectivity Report 2021 will be published at ACI EUROPE’s Annual Congress and General Assembly taking place 26-27 October 2021.
